By Zach Petzoldt, State Certified Trainee Appraiser

With the most recent Consumer Price Index coming in at 5% for March 2023, what does that mean for interest rates going forward? Despite this being 1% less than February of this year and the lowest since May 2021, the Federal Reserve continues to remain hawkish though as they are still hoping to get inflation under control.
Consumer Price Index
Inflation Is Easing
Annual CPI inflation, as cited in the article.
0%
2%
4%
6%
6%
5%
Lowest since May 2021
2%
Feb 2023
Mar 2023
Fed target
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Despite the Fed’s outwardly hawkish statements, the market believes that there are only one or two small rate hikes left before a several-month stall and eventual rate cut. The most recent predictions according to CME Group are that 88% expect a 25-basis point hike to 525 in May, and the remaining 12% expect no change. Over the rest of the year, less than a quarter believe that rates will be raised to 550, and a strong majority believes that rates will be reversed from where we are today by the end of year.
Market Sentiment
What the Market Expected
CME Group predictions for the May 2023 Fed decision.
As of April 2023
Over the rest of 2023, a strong majority expected rates to be reversed from April 2023 levels by the end of the year.
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While interest rates and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies are only one factor when it comes to real estate prices, interest rates are an important consideration, as most real estate is bought with the use of a loan. Typically, as rates increase, and the cost of payments follows, the number of potential buyers falls, hurting the demand for any given property. Even with rate hikes potentially on the horizon, property values will likely continue to have less growth in value or even a loss in value, as the US is likely to experience a recession due to the previous rate hikes. When rates do start to reduce at some point, the opposite will be true: as payments come down with interest rates, the number of buyers will increase. However this is much more long-term, and a few rate cuts will not be enough to improve market sentiment much in the likely case of some type of recession.
What This Means for Real Estate
How Rates Move Demand
Most real estate is bought with the use of a loan.
Rates rise
Rates Up
Payments Up
Fewer Buyers
Less Demand
Rates fall
Rates Down
Payments Down
More Buyers
More Demand
Rate cuts work more slowly: a few cuts may not improve market sentiment much in a recession.
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This is a common mantra on Wall Street and simply means to align your investments with the current Fed policies and their rhetoric instead of market sentiment or expectations. This is generally said to mean that someone should invest conservatively during rate hikes or higher interest rates and more aggressively during low-rate periods or cuts. Despite the market believing that rate cuts are near, members of the Federal Reserve Board remain hawkish as they have been put between a rock and a hard place. What I mean by this is that, as they continue to raise rates, the likelihood and severity of a potential recession grows, as well as the possibility of further bank failures.
While this is of great concern, the Fed also is well above their target inflation number of 2% and must continue to try to get this under control for domestic consumers, as well as to prevent further erosion in international faith in the dollar, and to maintain its use in international trade. The latter still seems to be more important to the Fed especially as China continues to gain support for the Yuan as a global trade settlement currency alternative to the dollar. Ultimately, market conditions are changing quickly and no one knows how much or how frequently interest rate changes are likely to occur. But real estate, especially in the long-term, continues to remain a good investment whether it is for income potential, a place to hedge against inflation, or for a potentially higher future resale value.
Don’t Fight the Fed
A Rock and a Hard Place
The Federal Reserve’s dilemma in spring 2023.
Keep raising rates
Recession Risk Grows
Stop raising rates
Inflation Stays High
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